In 2012, the states of Colorado and Washington became the first in the US to legalize cannabis for recreational use. Critics feared it would attract criminal elements, and that it would lead to increases in impaired driving incidents and youths being exposed to the drug, while advocates hoped it would lead to an economic boom, and an end to the criminalization of cannabis users.
This November marks the five year anniversary of legalization in both states. In that time a number of studies, surveys, and statistics have been published that provide a view into the range of effects that have been observed since the new regime was implemented. Here are some highlights:
Criminal elements
Prediction: Criminal elements would be attracted.
Observation: Mixed results, but overall that myth was busted.
A report published in 2016 found that cannabis-related crime had increased in Washington state post legalization. The report was based on data from both Spokane Valley and Seattle police departments, and it showed a rise in unlicensed distribution and possession of illegal cannabis following legalization, most of which was destined for states where prohibition was still in force.
However those statistics represent only a small portion, geographically speaking, of just one state. On the whole, crime statistics for Washington state reached a 40-year low in 2014, with violent crime down 10 percent and a 13 percent drop in the states murder rate. Colorado also saw decreases in overall crime rates, violent crimes, and property crimes.
Impaired driving
Prediction: Accidents and impaired driving incidents would increase.
Observation: Confirmed (mostly).
A study produced by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, which has received criticisms from legalization advocates, found that in 2014 (the year in which the first legal recreational cannabis shops actually opened for business) overall claims for traffic incidents rose by 14 percent in Colorado, and 4.6 percent in Washington.
While a certain amount of annual increase was expected regardless of legalization, even after researchers accounted for controls including rates of increase in nearby states where cannabis remained illegal, a rise of 2.7 percent was attributed to the legalization of cannabis.
But reports emphasize that while more drivers who had been involved in insurance claims in Washington and Colorado admitted to consuming cannabis before operating their vehicle, that may not reflect actual changes in usage, due to extremely limited data prior to legalization.
Nevertheless a correlation has been observed, showing a disproportionate increase in traffic-related insurance claims in states where cannabis has been legalized.
Youth exposure
Prediction: Minors would start using cannabis (more than they were already).
Observation: Myth busted.
Earlier this year a think tank working for Washingtons state legislature produced a report showing overall decreases in youth cannabis usage rates.
The report was based on survey data from the states Department of Health, which polled for usage among students in grades six, eight, ten, and twelve. The results of the survey showed decreased usage by students in all four grade levels. For example, students in the tenth grade responded at a 17 percent usage rate in 2016, compared to rates of 18 percent in 2006, and 20 percent in 2010.
Similar decreases in teen usage were observed in Colorado, with 21.2 percent reporting usage in 2015, down from 22 percent in 2011.
Big business
Prediction: The new legal market would lead to an economic boom.
Observation: Confirmed.
Both Colorado and Washington have experienced tremendous growth in the cannabis business ecosystem in the years since each state increased access from limited medical marijuana programs to fully legalized recreational markets.
Even setting aside financial gains by the myriad private businesses now operating in each state, and focusing instead on state revenues such as excise taxes and licensing fees, the case is clear. In 2014, Colorado received over $76 million in revenues, $35 million of which went directly toward funding the states education system. In 2015, total tax revenues from cannabis increased to over $135 million.
In Washington, $83 million was received in excise taxes alone during the first year of recreational cannabis shops operating in the state. In 2016 the states tax obligation was projected at $185 million, with the expectation of 2017 reaching over $230 million.
The lions share of tax revenues in Washington are slated for public health programs including Medicaid, substance abuse prevention, and community health centers.
An end to criminalization
Prediction: Arrests would stop, amnesty would be offered to those already incarcerated
Result: Myth busted (mostly).
While overall crime rates dropped in both states, significant increases in cannabis-related arrests were reported in a number of jurisdictions within each state ...
