How big of a hit will California’s medical marijuana market take from adult-use sales?
LOS ANGELES When Elias Zaldivar was an 18-year-old college freshman and decided he was in the market for marijuana, he knew just how to get it, and it didnt involve canvassing the corridors of his campus in search of that stoned-out dude who sold pot from his dorm room. Instead, he went straight to a doctor.
On a busy Hollywood street, Zaldivar quickly located a clinic specializing in medicinal pot referrals. He video-conferenced with a doctor from the waiting room and, following their 10-minute chat, a receptionist handed him an official-looking letter with an embossed gold seal that allowed him to buy medical marijuana at any California dispensary.
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Zaldivar, now a 21-year-old mixed martial arts coach, has renewed his medical marijuana recommendation each year since, always using the same health claim. He still chuckles while recalling what he explained to the doctor to get him to issue him that first prescription: I told him I had anxiety.
In the two decades since California became the first state to allow cannabis for medicinal use, its been an open secret that pretty much anyone who wants marijuana at just about any time can find a doctor who will recommend it for almost any reason.
Technically, the doctor doesnt provide a prescription but a letter of recommendation, because its illegal for a physician to prescribe a substance banned by the federal government, no matter what state law says.
Once that recommendation is secured, a person can also apply for a state-issued medical marijuana card that, although not required, is more convenient to carry to a dispensary and, in the eyes of some holders, gets them taken more seriously as people who need pot to stay healthy.
Although some doctors who take the examination process seriously charge far more, the fees at most of the in-and-out-the-door-in-10-minutes places is about $40.
Now, with recreational marijuana set to become legal Monday in California for anyone 21 and over, some people will be tossing their state-issued cards.
Revenue from the sale of medical marijuana is expected to drop from an estimated $2 billion in 2016 to about $1.4 billion next year, according to a study published this year by the University of California Agricultural Issues Center. At the same time, according to the study, the legal sale of recreational marijuana should bring in more than $5 billion as recreational pot captures about 62 percent of sales, while the black market retains about 30 percent.
Already Zaldivar and others say they see the market forces at work. In the months leading up to legal recreational pot sales, theyve noticed many of the heavily guarded medical dispensaries they frequent are letting them stroll in without their state-issued IDs.
As theyve gotten closer and closer to being legalized, they are not even asking for the recommendation letters anymore, said 22-year-old Adam Salcido, who works for a company that helps put on popular events like Hempfest and Cannabis Cup. He got his medical marijuana card to treat stomach problems he said hes suffered since childhood, and plans to keep it for now.
Like Salcido, many people do use marijuana to treat serious medical problems.
Some physicians, like myself, who see mostly very ill patients such as those with epilepsy, cancer and other serious conditions will likely not see a drop-off as we are involved in managing the cannabis treatment, not only providing a letter for access, said Dr. Bonni Goldstein, a pediatrician who began treating both children and adults with cannabis 10 years ago after she saw its medical benefits.
One age group caught between medical and recreational marijuana are those 18 to 20. Medical is legal for anyone 18 and older, so some in that ...
